Mosul Massacre killed THOUSANDS of INNOCENT people

[Anthea]

Mosul residents in possession of warning leaflets to be whipped by ISIS

A local source in Nineveh province informed Iraqi News on Wednesday that ISIS has threatened Mosul residents of 20 whipped if they were found carrying the warning leaflets dropped by the Iraqi Air Force on Tuesday night.

“As the Iraqi forces prepare to launch an all-out offensive against ISIS in the province, Iraqi fighter jets warned the citizens on Tuesday night by dropping warning leaflets, urging them to stay away from ISIS sites. The militant outfit on the other hand today, mobilized its members to collect the leaflets and also warned the residents that they will be whipped with 20 whips if any leaflets were found from their possession.”

It may be mentioned here that Iraqi warplanes on Tuesday night dropped a huge number of warning leaflets over the northern province of Nineveh, urging the civilians to keep away from the ISIS positions since they will be targeted by the jets.

http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/mosul ... pped-isis/

[Anthea]

US considering sending more special forces to help retake Mosul
And slaughter THOUSANDS of innocent people - also destroying the homes and businesses of innocent civilians

The United States is contemplating sending more special forces troops to coordinate operations with the Iraqi military ahead of its upcoming operation to retake Mosul from Islamic State (ISIS) militants, a report said.

“There is still a tough fight ahead against an adaptive enemy that will try to challenge us as we home in on Mosul and Raqqa,” said Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, the senior air commander for the US-led coalition against ISIS, on Tuesday, according CNN.

“The Pentagon is in the preliminary stages of discussing whether to send more Special Operations forces to advise and assist Iraqi forces,” CNN said. US and Iraqi officials are hopeful that the operation to retake Mosul from ISIS can begin before the end of this year.

This discussion about sending in US ground forces to assist the offensive to retake Mosul comes after Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s candidate for this year’s US Presidential election, vowed that Washington would never send troops to Iraq again.

“We are not putting ground troops into Iraq ever again,” Clinton said last Thursday, “And we’re not putting ground troops into Syria.”

The US currently has an estimated 4,480 soldiers in Iraq, most of which focus on training their Iraqi and Kurdish allies. Other Special Forces advisors have accompanied these forces to the battlefronts to help them effectively fight ISIS.

Also in Syria, the US has a smaller number of Special Forces advisors who are assisting Syrian Kurdish forces there.

Three US servicemen have been killed by Islamic State (ISIS) since their deployment to Iraq two years ago:

The first was killed while participating in a special forces raid, carried out with the Kurdish Peshmerga, to free a hostage from an ISIS prison in Hawija last October.

The second was a US Marine who killed by ISIS rocket fire while manning an artillery gun on the Makhmour front in March.

And the third was a Navy SEAL who was part of a rapid reaction force who was killed while evacuating US advisors from a Peshmerga front-line position which came under heavy attack from ISIS in early May.

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/14092016

[Anthea]

Is Mosul heading for a last 'apocalyptic' ISIS stand?

Y E S

Whatever else the battle for Mosul may involve, it will not be the element of surprise.

The operation to drive so-called Islamic State (IS) from Iraq's second-largest city has been long promised and much delayed.

The latest indications are it could begin next month, more than two years after IS took Mosul and proclaimed its caliphate.

The northern city is now the last bastion of IS in Iraq. The authorities in Baghdad say the liberation of Mosul will spell the end of IS on Iraqi soil.

Some predict the likely power-struggle afterwards could spell the end for Iraq, in its current form.

For the Peshmerga (whose name means "Those who confront death") the push to Mosul cannot come soon enough.

The formidable fighting force of the autonomous Kurdish region has a 620-mile (1,000km) frontline with IS.

Peshmerga fighters, on the jagged peaks of Mount Bashiq, have spent two years staring across the parched plain of Nineveh towards Mosul, a tantalising seven miles (12km) away.

The nearest IS fighters are closer still.

"Between us and them there is just one kilometre," said Gen Nabi Ahmed Doulemeri - a squat figure with a neat moustache - pointing to the town of Bashiq at the foot of the mountain.

"They have tried to attack us 30 or 40 times but each time we have defeated them. And we will defeat them in Mosul, God willing."

'Fight for humanity'

Within minutes of our arrival, IS fired a mortar at his sandbagged frontline position, but it fell short. Commanders said the militants were registering our presence.

The Peshmerga are confident of victory, though they lack basic equipment.

"A lot of these guys have bought their own weapons, shoes and uniforms," said Alan Duncan, a British army veteran who has taken up arms with the Kurds.
Media captionVolunteer fighter Alan Duncan: "I was fed up with watching the world do nothing"

He says the international community has provided only "token" support, though, in his view, the Peshmerga are defending the West.

"If Daesh [IS] got their caliphate here the next step for them would be Europe," he said. "Nice, Paris would be nothing to what we would see. The fact of the matter is that the Peshmerga held the line, and has started to push them back.

"This isn't a fight just for the Peshmerga, just for Kurdistan, this is a fight for the West, this is a fight for humanity."

The Scottish volunteer - a sniper - rode shotgun us as we bumped along dirt tracks touring the frontline in a Humvee.

He said he had no hesitation pulling the trigger on IS. "They are nothing," he said. "It's like putting your foot on an ant. They are savage, they are not humans."

New boundaries

In their push against ISIS, the Kurds are already redrawing the map of northern Iraq. They have expanded the area under their control by an estimated 50%.

Over glasses of hot, sweet tea, veteran Kurdish commander Gen Wasta Rasul said there would be no pulling back

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37353081

[Anthea]

Let's help all the refugees we can today
because there will be more in the not-so-distant future
or the coalition could stop the slaughter of innocent people

As the Syrian refugee crisis continues to worsen, the United Nations warns of another massive crisis in the Middle East. The battle against ISIS is moving towards the city of Mosul, which is ISIS's stronghold in Iraq. While retaking the hugely populated city will not be easy, the potential mass exodus of millions of people creates complex problems for Iraq, the U.S., and the region at large.

Mosul is Iraq's second largest city, with over 1 million people inside and under ISIS control. Nearly 84,000 people have already fled the area as the Iraqi government and militia advance on the city, with much more expected. With the full assault on the city expected in November, the United Nations is warning that caring for those fleeing the city will cost hundreds of millions of dollars. This new flow of refugees comes on top of the millions of refugees that have already displaced. To properly manage the wave of people that could flee Mosul, and to weed out extremists in the mix, it is critical to relocate as many vetted refugees as quickly as possible.

The logical step for processing refugees from Mosul--including processes to determine if any are ISIS terrorists--is to place them in the camps already handling this process. However, refugee camps in the region are already full beyond capacity. While the United Nations is looking to build more camps, getting funding and finding suitable land is proving difficult.

With the battle over Mosul expected to generate up to 1.3 million new refugees, already strained refugee services in the region will also be unable to cope. The inability to find safety and shelter in Iraq may force refugees to flee to other countries. For the surrounding countries who are already managing millions of refugees, this massive new displacement may be difficult to cope with. The numbers alone will make it hard for Middle Eastern countries to provide care for and to vet these refugees in real time. Refugees may then try to flee onwards to Europe.

We can take action before the battle for Mosul begins, however. If refugees can be resettled outside of the camps and strained neighboring countries, there is a higher chance that displacement from Mosul will be manageable.

While the United States cannot take all of the refugees needed to manage this crisis, every little bit helps. The United States has a very strong vetting process, but has struggled to reach its resettlement goals. Part of the problem is public perception, both about the costs of refugee resettlement and the vetting process.

Concerning security, the American refugee vetting process is long, intensive, and involves multiple agencies. Once here, there are policies that would help the United States increase the number of refugees it takes without increasing the burden on the taxpayer. Canada, as well as other Western countries, have had success with privately-funded refugee resettlement. The United States should follow this example.

Certainly, the international community at large must contribute significantly to avert a humanitarian crisis, but the United States can lead the effort by stepping up its individual support. Resettlement numbers in the United States are severely lacking. While Europe has taken in over 1 million refugees since the start of 2015, and the countries around Syria and Iraq--Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Egypt--have taken millions more, the United States has taken a little over 5,000 this fiscal year. Given that the the United States has a good record of assimilating refugees, and unlike Europe and Middle Eastern countries can screen refugees before they arrive, is all the more reason to increase settlement numbers.

The coming humanitarian crisis will be difficult to manage, regardless of how many refugees the United States takes. However, every refugee added to already bursting camps strains those camps' ability to help them, bends services and infrastructure towards the breaking point, and risks extremists slipping past security. Every refugee resettled elsewhere eases those problems, and gives slightly more hope that Iraq and Syria may eventually recover. We know this crisis is coming. Other countries will need to help as well, but the United States must do its part.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joshua-ha ... 10662.html

[Anthea]

US humanitarian aid to Iraq tops $1bn with new funding for Mosul IDPs

The United States Department of State will provide more than $181 million in humanitarian assistance for refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Iraq.

“The United States is providing more than $181 million in additional humanitarian assistance for the Iraqi people to address critical humanitarian needs, including those expected to occur with Iraq’s planned military offensive to liberate Mosul from Da’esh [Islamic State, ISIS] occupation,” reads the State Department’s Wednesday press release.

The funding was announced by Deputy Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken who is visiting Baghdad along with presidential envoy Brett McGurk.

Since 2014, the US has provided more than one billion dollars in humanitarian assistance for Iraq, supporting operations of the UN and other international organizations “to help respond to one of the fastest-growing displacement crises in the world.”

The US also reaffirmed its commitment to support the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in their response to the humanitarian crisis.

“The United States remains committed to supporting the government of Iraq, including the Kurdistan Regional Government, in their response to the humanitarian crisis, as well as supporting the Iraqi people during their time of need,” stated the State Department press release.

The UN expects one million people from Mosul and its surrounding areas will be displaced during the upcoming battle to liberate the city from ISIS. That will add to the already 3.3 million Iraqis already displaced and in need of humanitarian assistance because of ISIS’ brutality, according to the State Department.

The new US funding “enables the prepositioning of emergency food assistance and basic relief items to displaced Iraqis in preparation for the Mosul campaign.”

“It also supports the procurement and distribution of emergency relief and shelter supplies, and it will provide basic health care, including maternal and child health care services, as well as education, camp coordination camp management services, psychosocial support, gender-based violence prevention and mitigation programs, among other services.. This money funds essential water, sanitation, and hygiene services that will provide displaced Iraqis with safe drinking water, clean latrines, and shower facilities.”

The US funding will also include support for the UN and other humanitarian aid agencies that are helping Iraqi refugees in other regional countries, and to support ongoing humanitarian operations in Iraq for IDPs.

“In addition, US funding will support UNHCR and other agencies’ efforts to provide assistance to the estimated 230,000 Iraqi refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey.”

Next week, the UN General Assembly seventieth session will take place in New York. The assembly will host a summit on refugees to encourage increased commitments from member nations.

“The upcoming assembly’s session will be a high level summit of the members which will focus on refugees, migrants, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in order to urge state members to increase their commitments to provide economic support for refugees,” President of the United Nations General Assembly seventieth session, Mogens Lykketoft, told Rudaw on Tuesday.

“The UN needs $20 billion more annually to support refugees and IDPs as well as the countries receiving large numbers of refugees,” he added.

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/140920162

[Anthea]

I fear that once the attack on Mosul begins in earnest, Islamic State supporters in other countries will become far more active

This troubles me:

“The UN needs $20 billion more annually to support refugees and IDPs as well as the countries receiving large numbers of refugees,” he added.

This says to me that the UN is not expecting the fighting in Iraq to end anytime soon and I find this extremely worrying

I have a brilliant idea!

Instead of wasting billions of dollars on destroying Mosul and killing possibly THOUSANDS of innocent people

Why not spend the money on ENDING the fighting

[Anthea]

ISIS declares state of emergency in Mosul after spate of assassinations

Mosul is the biggest city in northern Iraq and a key oil-producing region
The city has been in the hands of ISIS since their June 2014 offensive
But now it is struggling to hold onto it amid airstrikes and ground attacks
ISIS officials assassinated in Qayyarah, Sharqat and Bashiqa districts

ISIS has reportedly declared a state of emergency in Mosul and taken its troops off the streets after a series of assassinations.

The jihadist organisation, sometimes referred to as Daesh, is on the back foot in Iraq and Syria as it comes under increasing pressure from air strikes and ground attacks.

ISIS captured Mosul - the biggest city in northern Iraq and a key oil centre - in June 2014 but its hold on the area has grown weaker in recent weeks as the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces attack from opposite directions.

Now it appears that forces within the city are also targeting ISIS.

The Iraqi News website said sources reported: 'ISIS have panicked after the waves of assassinations and have begun to cut off the main roads to the residential neighbourhoods, after declaring a state of emergency in the city.'

Several ISIS officials are believed to have been assassinated in the districts of Qayyarah, Sharqat and Bashiqa.

The US-led coalition fighting ISIS continues to train several thousand Sunni tribal fighters in preparation for a push on Mosul, the largest city in the self-proclaimed ISIS caliphate, which spans swathes of Iraq and Syria.

The Iraqi authorities have pledged to retake Mosul this year. A top US general said recently they were on track to meet the target.

The Iraqi News said coalition airstrikes on Tuesday and Wednesday destroyed a ISIS headquarters of ISIS in a forest near Mosul and another within the city.

ISIS recently chainsawed nine youths in half in public in Mosul - after they were accused of belonging to a 'resistance faction'.

The young men were tied to iron poles at Tal Afar Square before being sliced in two with an electric cutter.

All nine had been accused in an ISIS sharia court of being involved in a resistance movement before being sentenced to death.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tions.html

[Anthea]

Erbil, Baghdad, Washington reach agreement on Mosul

Erbil, Baghdad, and Washington reached an accord concerning cooperation between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi army in the battle for Mosul during a tripartite meeting hosted by the Kurdish president on Monday.

“Defeating ISIS [Islamic State] in Mosul was reiterated and deemed as a common objective of all the parties fighting the group. It was also discussed that there has to be cooperation between the Peshmerga, the Iraqi army and US-led coalition,” reads a statement issued by President Masoud Barzani’s office.

On Monday, Barzani led a three-way meeting in which high-ranking army officials attended. The US delegation consisted of Douglas A. Silliman, the US ambassador to Iraq, General Stephen J. Townsend, commander of the US forces in Iraq, and Ken Gross, the US consul in Erbil. The Baghdad team was comprised of Abul Amir Zaidi, deputy chief of staff of the Iraqi army, and a number of army officials.

“Details of the offensive were discussed and the attendants of the meeting agreed on mechanisms of cooperation between the three forces,” reads the statement.

Barzani expressed his appreciation for the tireless efforts of the coalition forces, Iraqi forces, and the Peshmerga. He said he hoped the agreed coordination between the three parties would “lay the groundwork for deepening brotherhood, friendship and trust among the all the forces,” that are collectively fighting one common enemy, ISIS.

The details of the agreement have not been made public as of yet.

ISIS seized control of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, in June 2014 when the terrorist group swept into a third of Iraq, and Iraqi army forces in the city melted away in the face of the onslaught.

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/190920161

[Anthea]

Erbil, Baghdad agree to coordinate media for Mosul offensive
(Already planning who is going to pass lies to the media)

Baghdad and Erbil have agreed to coordinate press coverage for the upcoming Mosul offensive by issuing joint statements from two media centres that will be opened in Erbil and Qayyara.

Representatives from both governments attended a first meeting that was “successful, especially regarding uniting the discourse on launching the operation to retake Mosul,” said Saad Ma’an, spokesperson for the Iraqi interior ministry.

“We have full confidence that the liberation process will start, but how to unite and have one discourse is important,” he added, stressing that high-level collaboration was crucial.

The meeting was attended by the media committees of the security agencies of both Baghdad and Erbil governments, an advisor from the Peshmerga ministry, and representatives from Baghdad’s interior, defense, national security, anti-terror, war media departments, Ma’an confirmed.

They agreed to establish two joint media centres, one in Erbil and one in Qayyara, and to form a joint media committee that will “publish statements on the battle for the liberation of Mosul and Nineveh province in general.”

A second meeting will be held to plan further, including “important strategy in retaking Mosul,” Ma’an revealed.

On Monday, Erbil, Baghdad, and Washington reached an accord concerning cooperation between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi army in the battle for Mosul during a tripartite meeting hosted by the Kurdish president.

“Defeating ISIS [Islamic State] in Mosul was reiterated and deemed as a common objective of all the parties fighting the group. It was also discussed that there has to be cooperation between the Peshmerga, the Iraqi army and US-led coalition,” reads a statement issued by President Masoud Barzani’s office.

On Monday, Barzani led a three-way meeting in which high-ranking army officials attended. The US delegation consisted of Douglas A. Silliman, the US ambassador to Iraq, General Stephen J. Townsend, commander of the US forces in Iraq, and Ken Gross, the US consul in Erbil. The Baghdad team was comprised of Abul Amir Zaidi, deputy chief of staff of the Iraqi army, and a number of army officials.

“Details of the offensive were discussed and the attendants of the meeting agreed on mechanisms of cooperation between the three forces,” reads the statement.

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/200920165

[Anthea]

Why Mosul’s security and stability are important to Kurdistan

As the coalition gears up for the impending operation to free Mosul from Islamic State (ISIS) the question of how important Mosul’s stability is for the neighbouring Kurdistan Region is now more pressing than ever.

Even though ISIS has not yet been forced from Mosul, already one of the main concerns of the Kurdistan Region is guaranteeing the stability of Iraq’s second-city after those militants are removed.

Early focus on post-operation planning indicates that those with a stake in Mosul’s future want to ensure their victory over ISIS is a permanent one.

“Mosul is very important for Kurdistan Region,” Beriwan Khailany, a Kurdish MP in the Iraqi parliament and member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), told Rudaw English. “To have a secure area in that part of Iraq is important for Erbil because if it is not secure Kurdistan will be negatively affected as a result.”

US President Obama met with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi this week and told him that post-ISIS Mosul needs to be rebuilt and stabilized in “a way that assures that not only ISIL does not come back but that its extremist ideology born out of desperation will not return.”

The Kurdistan Region’s President Masoud Barzani touched upon a similar theme last week when he discussed the importance of having a “political plan” ready for Mosul after it is liberated.

These statements indicate an acute awareness of the importance of a post-ISIS plan for Mosul.

The fall of Mosul and the wider Nineveh region to ISIS in the summer of 2014 did, after all, directly affect the Kurdistan Region’s security (some 1,400 Kurdish Peshmerga have been killed defending their region) as well as its economy.

That fact alone indicates, as Khailany says, that the security and stability of Nineveh is, in a sense, tied to the security and stability of the Kurdistan Region.

Dylan O’Driscoll, a research fellow at the Middle East Research Institute (MERI) in Erbil, told Rudaw English that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) “is in desperate need of stability in the region in order for investment to return,” due to the crippling financial crisis it is suffering.

“Therefore the stabilization of Mosul is extremely important to them,” O’Driscoll added. “Having chaos at your doorstep does nothing to encourage international investment.”

However, O’Driscoll feels the necessary steps to achieve this are not being taken.

“For this stability to happen there needs to be multiple political agreements and significant non-military planning prior to any liberation and I fear this is still not happening,” he said.

It is not all doom and gloom though. O’Driscoll believes that the Kurdistan Region can foster new alliances with emerging actors in the post-ISIS future of Mosul.

“Since the Islamic State has gained control of Mosul, relations between the KRG and the Sunni political actors of Mosul have improved immensely, largely due to the fact that the KRG is hosting and supporting the Nineveh Provincial Council,” he explained.

“Therefore,” he concluded, “the KRG can use the liberation of Mosul as an opportunity to forge new alliances within wider Iraqi politics with their neighbouring province.”

Maintaining cordial relations with the new authorities in post-ISIS Mosul is also likely to stabilize the wider region and allow the Kurdistan Region to focus more on winning foreign investment and rebuilding its shattered economy.

For now, however, the more immediate issue the Kurdistan Region is likely to face is the prospect of receiving hundreds of thousands more displaced people fleeing Mosul and seeking sanctuary when this operation, which the coalition and Iraq hope to launch before the end of the year, commences.

The KRG and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs are warning that they do not have enough money to facilitate another large influx of displaced people into that region.

If Mosul’s residents do choose to flee en masse when this operation begins, as their counterparts in the much smaller city of Fallujah did this summer, the Kurdistan Region may well become inundated with more displaced people, adding to the strain that Mosul’s fall has placed on Kurdistan.

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/200920168

[Anthea]

Baghdad, Erbil and US weighed with own issues as they hobble to Mosul battle

Iraq, the Kurdistan Region and the United States are girding for their joint assault on Mosul to liberate the last Iraqi city still in the hands of the Islamic State (ISIS). But all three parties who will fight jointly for Iraq’s second-largest city will be stepping into the battle with their own domestic issues.

President Obama's special envoy to the US-led coalition against ISIS, Brett McGurk, told Rudaw on Tuesday that the operation is "coming together," pointing to the recent advances of both Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces on the battlefield.

Partnership between Baghdad and Erbil for this operation, McGurk stressed, "is the only way to defeat Daesh (ISIS) and get Daesh out of Mosul. I think we've made a lot of progress in that regard."

McGurk also told Rudaw that he is "fairly confident" the coalition and its allies can begin the operation before the end of the year, but said that ultimately depends on the timeline set by the operation's military commanders.

In a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi at the United Nations (UN) on Monday US President Barack Obama said that he is confident the Iraqis and the US military can capture Mosul “fairly rapidly,” but conceded that the operation will “be hard. It’s going to be challenging. It will require resources.”

Also on Monday there was a meeting between Baghdad, Erbil and Washington hosted by Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani, where they “agreed on mechanisms of cooperation between the three forces.”

But how prepared are these powers to undertake this operation in the coming months – many US officials say it will begin as early as October – given the respective domestic issues they have been facing?

Baghdad has been effectively paralyzed by a domestic political crisis over powerful Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s demands for a parliamentary overhaul and the storming of the Green Zone by his supporters on April 30.

Abadi did successfully manage to quell protests by launching the Fallujah operation in May, urging protesters to remain at home while security forces were combating the ISIS threat and forcing ISIS from that city by the end of June.

However, Mosul is much further away from Baghdad and is a far bigger city and of much more significance to ISIS, both strategically and symbolically. Abadi has said that removing ISIS from there will effectively destroy their self-styled caliphate, since it was from Mosul where the militant leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared that the group had become a state.

While Baghdad has made advances against the militants in Iraq’s northwest south of Mosul – notably in July and August with their capture of Qayyara airbase and the oil-town of the same name – it is still nevertheless grappling with internal issues. It hasn’t had a standing defense minister since the end of August, when parliament passed a vote of no confidence in Khaled al-Obeidi after he publicly accused other members of government of corruption -- something which raises questions about its current ability to mount a large-scale offensive into Iraq’s second-city.

In the Kurdistan Region the Ministry of Peshmerga has been effectively shut since the Kurdish parliament closed back in August 2015, over internal disputed among the main political parties. Since then, the focus has been on the war, defending the Kurdistan Region and pushing ISIS further back from its borders.

Due to the financial crisis Erbil has been facing for about two years now, the salaries of the Peshmerga have remained unpaid for months at a time. The US provided the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) with $415 million in July to help them pay their soldiers, who are presently manning front-line positions closer to Mosul than any other force.

Furthermore, both the KRG and the UN have warned that they not have adequate funding to host the hundreds-of-thousands of displaced people from Mosul they expect to flee the operation to neighboring Kurdistan.

Anthea: obvious solution do NOT attack Mosul - do NOT kill innocent people - do NOT destroy homes and businesses - do NOT drive THOUSANDS of people from their homes

In the United States the presidential elections are not necessarily affecting the campaign: the US is still sending more troops, training its allies and providing air support. Instead, there is the prospect of the incumbent president aiming to see ISIS routed from Mosul before leaving office in January 2017. Even though Washington invariably says it is following Iraq’s timetable on this matter, it is aware that Abadi has promised to remove the militants from Mosul by the end of 2016 and believes that is possible.

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/210920161

[Anthea]

Erdogan: Mosul offensive will commence October 19

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed on Sunday that the battle to push the Islamic State (ISIS, Daesh) out of their stronghold of Mosul will commence on October 19.

“It is said that the battle for Mosul against Daesh will kick off on October 19 and that we all have to be prepared for this event,” Erdogan said in a meeting with Turkish community figures based in the United States.

Halgurd Hikmat, media officer for the Peshmerga ministry, told Rudaw English that he could not confirm publicly the date for the launch of the Mosul offensive for security reasons.

He said that the timing for commencing the military operation has been discussed in President Masoud Barzani’s meetings with Iraqi and American officials but will not be made public, even if a firm date has been agreed upon.

The Turkish president, in the United States to attend meetings of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, reportedly hailed an agreement between Baghdad and Erbil concerning Mosul liberation operations, describing it as crucial to reaching the goal of defeating ISIS in Nineveh Province and finally routing the terrorist group from Iraq.

“The agreement which is signed between the Peshmerga and Arabs for the offensive is very important,” Erdogan said in the meeting.

Erbil, Baghdad, and Washington reached an accord concerning cooperation between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi army in the battle for Mosul during a tripartite meeting hosted by the Kurdish president on Monday.

The Iraqi army has begun military offensives against the remaining ISIS positions in areas around Mosul and Kirkuk to weaken the group and facilitate the Mosul offensive.

Last week Shargat town, considered the key town through which the Iraqi army could head to Mosul, was liberated.

Though Baghdad has repeatedly demanded Turkey leave northern Iraq, where its army is training Sunni and Peshmerga forces, Erdogan claimed, “Mosul inhabitants including Arabs and other groups are supporting us.”

Anthea: was there a referendum in Mosul I knew nothing about? No there was NOT

The people of Mosul do NOT want to be bombed

The people of Mosul do NOT want to be become liberated corpses

The people of Mosul do NOT want their homes to be destroyed

The people of Mosul do NOT want their businesses destroyed

The people of Mosul do NOT want to be become homeless penniless refugees

Turkish armed forces are in Bashiqa, northern Iraq, providing training for Peshmerga and Iraqi Sunni forces.

Last December, Turkey boosted its troop numbers at the camp sparking a diplomatic confrontation with Baghdad who asserted that the Turkish troops were in the country without Baghdad’s permission or knowledge. Turkey maintained that the troops were necessary to protect their training mission at the camp.

However, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that the presence of Turkish forces in Iraq “hinders our efforts to liberate Mosul” from ISIS and called on the international community to demand Turkey withdraw its forces in a speech to world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday.

ISIS seized control of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, in June 2014 when the terrorist group swept into a third of Iraq, and Iraqi army forces in the city melted away in the face of the onslaught.

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/250920166

[Anthea]

NATO’s concerns over upcoming Mosul operation

“Raqqa is also important, but Mosul is key,” a senior NATO official speaking on condition of anonymity told me while explaining why liberating Iraq’s second-largest town from the hands of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) will be a turning point in the fight against one of the bloodiest terror organizations ever.

“ISIL uses territory for many of its objectives: to generate income and human resources, train its terrorists and for propaganda activities. But also having territories do help their narrative of being a state, the Islamic State,” the official underlined. Although ISIL has more territories in Syria than in Iraq, it’s believed that the organization still has its fundamental bodies and top leaders in the latter. Thanks to the anti-ISIL coalition’s intensified air strikes, it has lost around 40 percent of the territory it has been controlling in the last year.

But more has to be done to defeat ISIL. “Progress is being made,” the official said, referring to ongoing preparations for the much-anticipated operation to free Mosul from ISIL. Although NATO, institutionally, has not been involved in the anti-ISIL fight in Iraq and Syria, it’s indirectly in the business as all of its members are part of the coalition.

So that’s why it supports the aerial campaign of the coalition members by providing additional surveillance capability while also continuing to draw the attention of allies to the difficulties during and after such a massive operation to Mosul. The first aspect the NATO official pointed out is the fact that it is not only the Iraqi government and the international coalition that are preparing for an offensive.

“DAESH [the Arabic acronym of ISIL] has also been getting ready for it for the last two years. Everybody should be very sure that it will be very difficult,” the official stressed.

According to the official, the international community should take these points into consideration before any Mosul operation:

-The international community should be ready for the humanitarian consequences of the operation and should be ready to assist the Iraqi government.

-The operation, itself, will be very difficult. The international community should be aware that the operation will not be an easy one.

-Another point is about the post-operation consequences. There could be some security risks in the aftermath of freeing Mosul as many ISIL jihadists may flee to other regional countries to pose threats. Likewise, the organization may renew its instructions to cells in the West to launch attacks in places where they are located. Therefore there is a need to enhance intelligence capabilities.

-The last point is the fact that there are a huge number of armed groups in Iraq and some of them are well-armed and radicalized. So what will come after the liberation of Mosul is also a concern. This problem is not only observed by NATO but by other international organizations, something the United Nations has already been dealing with.

However, this last point is not being regarded as a problem by the Iraqi government. Iraqi Ambassador to Belgium Dr. Jawad al-Chlaihawi, in a meeting at NATO headquarters, underlined that liberating Mosul was not only one group’s cause but all of Iraq’s. “Everybody wants to participate in the operation; tribal armed forces, Kurdish pehmergas. This is a reflection of togetherness,” he said.

He also tried to sooth the concerns over a power fight for Mosul between different factions, saying: “How will Mosul be governed? It will be governed by a council that represents all ethnicities. It won’t be on an ideological basis.”

But al-Chlaiwahi didn’t signal an imminent operation on Mosul. “The decision to free Mosul will be taken when the circumstances are right. Sometimes you have to be patient. We should do it when all the circumstances are right, militarily and politically,” he stated.

Recalling that the Iraqi army was able to free Falluja and Anbar provinces from ISIL in recent months, the ambassador drew attention to the right time to launch an operation like that.

It openly seems we are heading towards a historical turning point in the Middle East as operations on Raqqa and Mosul will likely determine the future of the region and all surrounding countries.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/natos- ... sCatID=429

[Anthea]

Three Questions Facing the Mosul Operation

Two years ago, the Islamic State was on the warpath. The jihadist group, treated as a backburner issue at that time by the Obama administration and more of a nuisance than a national security threat to the U.S. homeland, shocked the world with its blitzkrieg across northern and central Iraq. An Iraqi army that was trained by the U.S. military and funded by the U.S. taxpayer to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars fled south in terror. In about 48 hours, Iraq’s second biggest city of Mosul was firmly in the hands of the jihadists; in TIkrit, Iraqi soldiers were quickly surrounded in their base, rounded up, and executed in mass graves. The rest stripped off their uniforms and ran for the hills.

The situation couldn’t be more different this year. The U.S.-led military coalition has shown the world that ISIL, as President Obama likes to say, is not ten-feet tall. The Pentagon’s statistics are impressive: tens of thousands of ISIL’s fighters have been killed; dozens of its commanders have been smoked from above; 45% of the group’s territory has been retaken by the Iraqi government; and its oil production is down by half.

The campaign is going so well, coalition officials say, that the city of Mosul is now in its crosshairs. For Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the Iraqi army leadership, recapturing Mosul would be depicted as the death of ISIL’s self-proclaimed caliphate and a reaffirmation to the Iraqi people that its army is not the disheveled, pathetic force that it was in 2014. For the Obama administration, Mosul’s capture would be the icing on the cake — a perfect going away gift as it hands the reigns of government over to his successor.

U.S. officials are understandably eager to get moving. Gen. Joe Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters that, “the noose is gradually tightening around Mosul” and that driving ISIL out of the northern city would be “a very significant blow to the Islamic State as…they can no longer talk about holding a physical caliphate in Syria and Iraq.” Troops and enablers continue to drip in to the Qaraya military base, about forty miles south of the city. Brig. Gen. William F. Mullen III, until recently the deputy commander of the operations room in Baghdad, was so bold as to predict a rout of ISIL in Mosul once Iraqi forces begin moving in. “I don’t think they’re [ISIL] going to stick around,” he said.

It’s always difficult, if not impossible, to predict how a military operation will proceed. The old adage that any military plan becomes useless as soon as the fighting starts is a good rule to follow. But what we can say is that three questions will determine whether or not the combination of coalition airpower and Iraqi and Kurdish boots on the ground will prove to be as successful as it was against ISIL in Sinjar, Tikrit, Fallujah, Ramadi, and Kobani.

1 – How hard will ISIL fight? There is no uniform guidebook that the Islamic State has used to defend terrain. In Ramadi, the group littered the entire city with IED’s, dug trenches to complicate the Iraqi army’s initial offensive, and deployed suicide car bombs to strike at Iraqi lines. It took about eight months for the Iraqi army to drive the group from the area.

Sinjar was a completely different fight. Kurdish and Yazidi forces, taking advantage of precision U.S. airpower, were too much for ISIL to handle. Nearly 48 hours after the first shots were fired, ISIL troops decided to retreat rather than stand their ground and risk overwhelming casualties.

Mosul will most likely resemble Ramadi more than Sinjar. Mosul is the city, after all, where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi delivered his sermon proclaiming that he was now the caliph of an Islamic utopia. It’s the city that put ISIL on the international map with its sudden thrust into Iraq. And Mosul is the source of a significant amount of the organization’s wealth; its two million residents are a perfect source of cash for ISIL fighters and administrators, whether this takes the form of taxes or extortion. It’s going to be tough to give all of that up, which is likely one of the reasons why Gen. Jamal Mohammad Omer — the Kurdish military chief of staff — predicted that the group will “fight to the death.”

2 – What happens with the Shia militias? If there is any other group reviled in Iraq among the Sunni community as much as ISIL, it’s the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMU) — units that are composed of Shia fighters that don’t necessarily take orders from the Iraqi state. Although these units have been instrumental to the Iraqi government in the fight against ISIL (when the Iraqi army was a shell two years ago, Shia militias made up most of the numbers), they are also unaccountable and are distrusted or reviled by Iraqi Sunnis.

Sunni hatred towards the PMU’s is not without reason; these militias, sometimes in partnership with the Iraqi security forces, have committed some of the worst crimes against humanity in the country. Hanging or murdering prisoners, looting and burning homes in Tikrit, summarily executing Sunni villagers in Diyala, and disappearing hundreds of Sunni men from Fallujah​ are only just the tip of the iceberg. The fact that the PMU’s have been able to engage in such inhumane behavior without being held to account by the Iraqi government is just as concerning to Sunni residents. The record suggests that the PMU’s, if not controlled or limited during the operation, could very well conduct these same crimes in Mosul.

This is what Daniel Davis, a retired U.S. Army Colonel and now senior fellow at Defense Priorities (where I’m also privileged to work), observed during his trip to the frontlines. Civilians in Mosul, Davis writes, “have no intention of allowing any Shia groups into their zone. If they do, I have been told, the Sunnis will fight the Shia militias as much as they would fight ISIS.” Less than a month before the offensive for Mosul is due to begin, we still don’t know whether Prime Minister Abadi will permit the PMU’s to participate.

3 - Who governs Mosul after ISIL? Kurdish peshmerga, Iraqi national police, Iraqi special forces, Sunni tribal militias, and possibly the PMU’s will all be involved in the operation to liberate Mosul. But assuming ISIL is defeated as everyone hopes, the question of how the city will be governed and who will take control of administrative functions is just as important as whether or not ISIL is pushed back in the first place. Whenever several different and potentially adversarial factions are cluttered together in the same city, it doesn’t take a genius to assume that “victor goes the spoils” mentality could be prevalent. If the Iraqi government doesn’t sit down with the coalition, the Kurds, and the local Sunni forces to hash out these problems and determine who is in charge of what, there is a good chance that internecine fighting between all of them could erupt over turf. That wouldn’t help anybody, in particular the people of Mosul who have been locked in the city by ISIL for over two years.

Daniel R. DePetris is an analyst at Wikistrat, Inc., a geostrategic consulting firm, and a freelance researcher. He has also written for CNN.com, Small Wars Journal and The Diplomat.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-sk ... 854?page=2

[Anthea]

...will prove to be as successful as it was against ISIL in Sinjar, Tikrit, Fallujah, Ramadi, and Kobani.

Define successful?

Sinjar the response took so long that THOUSANDS of people who fled from ISIS died needlessly from exhaustion, hunger, thirst and cold on the mountain

The remaining - close-knit - families have been torn apart

3,735 Yezidis still in ISIS captivity

After 2 years of suffering there still has not been a concerted effort by members of the coalition to rescue the Yazidis

If that is classed as success I dread to think what they class as failure

Kobane NATO member Turkey had it's tanks sitting on the Turkish/Syrian border watching ISIS move in

Nothing much was done to prevent ISIS from obtaining supplies and fresh fighters

What was left after everyone played war games in the city was little more than RUBBLE

Where coalition seemed more than happy to pay MILLIONS of DOLLARS to destroy Kobane they have NOT been willing to pay to rebuild the city

Nobody has ever admitted how many people were killed but most people lost family members and everything they owned

People were so badly treated by Turks that the refugees from Kobane risked their lives to escape from TURKEY (they had already escaped from ISIS when they fled Turkey it was because of the Turks) across the water to Europe

THOUSANDS DIED

Truly another great success story