Author: Anthea » Wed Apr 30, 2025 11:44 pm
Syria should avoid what Iraq
experienced after 2003
Georgetown University, America, urged Syria's new leaders to "take advantage of the lessons of Iraq", given that they stood at a crossroads like Iraq 20 years ago, so they should avoid sectarian exclusion, revenge and follow a comprehensive federal system of governance that recognizes ethnic and sectarian diversity
The report issued by the University's Security Studies Center, translated by Shafak News, clarified that with the exit of Syria from the shadows of Bashar Al-Assad's rule, the transition period it has been going through since December/January 1, 2024 has become minute, especially for minorities, where communal tensions have erupted and turned into violence against upper civilians, raising concerns.
It is a collective punishment that reminds us of Iraq after 2003, in addition to the fact that the Syrian Kurds are pushing towards federal self-government, and it is based on informal arrangements similar to the situation of the Kurdistan Territory in Iraq, except that there are no legal guarantees for this step.
The US report called for Syria's new leaders to "take advantage of the lessons of Iraq" to avoid sectarian collapse and extremist policies, by "reconciling the communities of the previous regime rather than enforcing them, and formalizing minorities' rights within a comprehensive constitutional framework."
As the experiences of the Sunnah and Kurds in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein represent messages A clear warning for the Syrian future course, either in the end of the year of the Iraqi rebellion, while the Kurdish federalism served as a model for self-government and stability after the conflict.
The report clarified that the post-Fall of Assad has been stained by horrible sectarian violence against Syria's upper minority, where the "coastal massacres" in March/2025, took place with armed retaliatory attacks against upper-majority areas such as Latakia and Tartous, where human rights observers indicated that more than a thousand people have been killed, about 800 of them from Civilians.
There are enormous political risks, according to the report, from these acts of revenge, because such a collective punishment for the sake of the upper-ranking, may plant the seeds of a long-term rebellion, similar to what happened in Iraq after 2003, where the Sunni minority faced a major exclusion process under the policy of "Resurrection of Baath" implemented by the United States.
Which was implemented in addition to the "violations of Shiite militias," there has been a great feeling of injustice, and the marginalized Sunnah became fertile ground for recruiting rebel groups - from organizing the base to the rebels-led factions that eventually turned to ISIS, Iraq has been sunk in years of sectarian civil war, the report says.
He pointed out that, there is a necessity for Syria to avoid repeating the cycle of sectarian exclusion that Iraq has witnessed, which led to the rebellion, he pointed out that the Syrian interim president Ahmed Al-Sharraa apparently recognizes this necessity, adding that there should be an "exit" for the upper elite who had a connection with the regime and did not commit any crimes.
It is mentioned that the complete dismantling of the Iraqi army and the administrative system dominated by the Iraqi Sunna, caused the deprivation of thousands of armed people from anywhere in the new regime, a step that was a disaster.
The report said, that Iraq's experience has shown that without such a director, it creates room for rebellion and arms bearing, and for this reason, securing a way to reintegrate officials from lower ranks in the Lion's era, deprives the militants from a support base and helps unify the country, and in this context, Iraq offers a lesson.
Clearly, since comprehensive judgment is a security necessity, Syria must also hold individuals accountable for war crimes, with its stern refusal to any speech that blames an entire sect, since this "precise balance of justice without revenge, is the only way to avoid the fate of Iraq."
Kurd and Federalism: promises and risks
Kurds have temporarily relinquished independence in exchange for merger, seeking to secure their rights in a new union Syria, following an agreement between them and the Syrian interim government, the Georgetown report indicated.
He added that the United States, which has supported Syria's democratic forces against ISIS, in this alliance a means of ensuring without a Syrian internal conflict and to facilitate the final withdrawal of American forces, pointing out that if the agreement succeeds, it would contribute to the stability of Northeast Syria and addressing tensions, while if it fails, it would threatens to rekindle the conflict between the Kurdish forces and the central government or Turkey-backed militias.
For this reason, I consider the report that the Kurds see federalism as a way to achieve their aspirations and provide an essential safety net in the midst of a volatile political landscape, pointing out that the post 2005 Iraq experience also offers hope and a warning at the same time.
After the fall of Saddam Hussein, the Kurds established the Kurdistan territory, in cooperation with Americans and Iraqis and work to ensure that the 2005 Constitution of Kurdistan is recognized as an official territory, the Kurdistan Regional Government, which had its own parliament, chairman, Peshmerga forces and a legal share of oil revenues, was established through federal arrangements.
This framework flourished between 2005 and 2013, making the Kurdish region a safe haven amid communal violence in the south, while strengthening Kurdish political influence in Baghdad, the report said, adding that such success indicates that a similar centralization in Syria has enabled Kurds to engage in regeneration instead of the pursuit of independence, indicating that what's going on shows federalism as a new concept that Iraq has introduced to the Arab world.
According to the report, on Iraqi Experience, the risks of erosion of confidence and unclear agreements, where disputes broke out between Baghdad and Erbil, over the sharing of disputed oil and land revenues like Kirkuk, while the 2017 general independence referendum drove the federal forces to seize privileges to the regional government, leading to budget cuts and the cancellation of Kurdish oil contracts.
That is why the report urged the Syrians and the Kurds, on the law of agreements, pointing out that there are several steps to make Kurdish self-government a stable factor, first of all the drafting of a new constitution that determines the rights of the Kurds and their regional authority, because without this legal framework, the situation may be affected both sides in Damascus, emphasizing that it is necessary to establish the role of the Kurds Before they lose their influence.
And the second step, the report said, should take into account regional dynamics, especially Turkey's complex role, which has a pragmatic relationship with the regional government, as a similar approach in Syria could alleviate fears if the Syrian Kurds prioritise unity over independence.
As for the third step, the report said that Kurds benefit from international support, just like what Kurds did in Iraq with the participation of the United States and the United Nations in drafting the Constitution, noting that Western officials express their concern about how the new Islamic-led regime in Damascus is treating minorities, and Kurds' rights are set aside essentially, calling for continued diplomatic pressure to ensure this agreement makes sense.
The post-Assad unrest, from the Latakia massacres to the Kurdish agreement, represent risks and hope at the moment, warning that extremist politics may undermine the fragile peace in Syria, as it did in Iraq, when a group's victory led to another group's rebellion, host, that hope is to be able to Syria avoids this fate by applying the lessons Iraq has learned the hard way regarding reconciliation and federalism.
After asking the report about what Syria should learn from Iraq, he said that taking revenge against the supporters of the fallen regime cannot become the basis of a new regime, adding that the leaders of Iraq realized too late that treating all the minorities as enemies encourages rebellion.
The new leaders of Syria should condemn the recent violence against the upper-classmen as it is a criminal act, not encouraging, and they also have to assure minorities that collective punishment is rejected by integrating them into power, maintaining their livelihoods, and ensuring justice is followed.
In order to avoid the "appearance of the ghost of rebellion", the report said that there is a need to formalize arrangements that guarantee every sect has its share in the country, including the Kurds efforts to engage in decentralization in power.
The experience of Federal Iraq, despite its flaws, has contributed to maintaining unity and promoting political diversity, which is why avoided, the Syrian leadership should engage in the national dialogue and draft the Constitution with a real openness to the majority, taking into account a more flexible federal system or strong local self-government, since the Constitution provides protection for minorities' rights and self-government, in order to promote peace.
Seals the report by saying "Syria is currently standing at a crossroads as it happened to Iraq 20 years ago", and wonders whether it can come out as a stable and united nation, or will it revive the rebellion and injustice that Iraq experienced, adding that the Iraqi tragedies are in the post-Saddam stage, offer a lesson to Syrians, except that it guides us as well.
To what should not be done, and Syria's new leaders require to show the wisdom needed to benefit from these lessons, including protecting minorities, dividing power, and putting a constitutional framework into account for all parties.
He finished saying, that the new leaders of Syria can "save Syria from the repetition of Iraq's nightmares, but to realize the hope that Syria will be free of dictatorship and a home for all its children". He added that "the world is watching, and history is ready to judge whether Damascus will accept reconciliation or will allow the ghosts of Iraq's past to haunt Syria's future."
Translated by Shafaq News Agency
Author
Mehdî Kakeyî
My Name Is KURDISTAN And I Will Be FREE