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Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:38 pm

Something very interesting is going on :-?

GKP takeover price is between £6 to £8. TK expects on Shaikan plus one other block to be sold.

Dreams of £15 to £20 are ridiculous GKP do not have another 5 years to get production to the levels required.

Confirmation of the deal is close and huge potential in other blocks still remains - even the KRG can't believe the success GKP has had drilling their blocks - various IOC's wanted in - right now GKP are being totally controlled by the KRG.
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:43 pm

Share Price Information for Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP)

Share Price: 163.00 Bid: 162.50 Ask: 163.00 Change: 1.00 (+0.62%)

Full details and share chart:

http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=GKP
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:59 pm

Iraq 2014 Budget is reportedly set at $150Bn or thereabouts.
The 2013 budget was reportedly $118Bn.

A theoretical 17% of this for 2014 would therefore be ca. $25Bn.

As widely stated the Kurds have not been receiving this percentage but according to my local information they were receiving in 2013 approx. $12Bn (about 11%-12%). Using the same percentage for 2014 would imply (without any further trimming or reductions imposed by Baghdad) a sum of approx. $16-$17Bn. The difference of $(25-16) or $9Bn, therefore, would seem a very useful sum to be discussing at this point in time.

Firstly, the Kurds have been able (some would say more than able) to live, and prosper, on the lower percentage which has been paid until now. They are therefore very able to calculate what “an extra 5%” might mean, and similarly what a “theoretical reduction of 5%” might imply.

Secondly, much of the previous year’s disagreements also involved just what sums should be payable by the centre for the Kurd’s own military forces, the Peshmerga. Baghdad essentially argued that the centre’s forces were sufficient to “protect the North”, but this argument has been without foundation for the last few years (the centre even requested Peshmerga help recently as I recall) and seems likely to remain that way for some time to come. In view of what is happening now throughout the South and WNW of Baghdad, the Kurdish argument should surely win the day and I believe most, if not all, Peshmerga costs will be considered.

Thirdly, the budget allocations are supposed to be proportional to population – but there has been no government census carried out despite the population of Kurdistan having increased substantially. Many Kurds have returned home from Europe and abroad to share in the boom times and many refugees from Syria continue to be accepted and cared-for in camps.

As SOMO monitoring of the storage tanks and metering seems to have been agreed, along with an internationally guaranteed payments procedure (sums are to be remitted to Baghdad less the agreed 17%), it would seem that the major obstacle remaining is the one of payments to be made to the oil companies.

Baghdad says these should be made from the retained sums and Arbil says No, extra cash from Baghdad is needed to cover these, i.e. we want 17%+their costs.

Actually, what I am hearing is that the centre is prepared to accept the PSC Profit Oil $/bbl agreements entered into by the KRG (despite the sums being 3-4 times higher than the LTSC’s $/bbl down South) but refuses to carry any part of the Capex repayment, the Cost Oil Recovery procedure.

So, to my mind, and leaving aside the emotional Kurdish Independence issue (leaving aside also the Kirkuk question which will not be solved any time soon, if ever), there doesn’t appear to be an insurmountable gulf between them.
I’ve no idea what the Peshmerga currently cost, but I have a feeling that $9Bn should cover quite a lot, if not most, of the current Capex recovery sums due to the oil companies.

An agreement by Baghdad to “let things stand for the moment” and to re-visit the issues within, say, 3 years would probably work, especially if seen to be part of an Iraq-wide re-assessment of how the O&G industry should best be allowed to develop. I hear that a new organization is being considered for just this purpose.

A rapidly increasing Kurdish production coupled with a reliable payments procedure for both sides, plus new oil and gas pipelines through Turkey, with a friendlier Kurdistan playing a greater part in ensuring that Parliament actually works, for all Iraqi’s, would help some in Baghdad overcome their hatred for those who were “too close to the USA”.

Baghdad knows that increasing prosperity in the North will ultimately lead to louder calls for independence – but that’s probably a couple of years off yet.

A bitter, jealous and distrustful Baghdad has therefore to balance the potential results of their continued blockage with the potential (even if ultimately short-term) advantages offered by compromise. Likewise, Barzani has to do the same with his fractious friends in Arbil and Sulaymaniyah.

There now exists the distinct possibility of some give and take by both sides. I’m sure a lot of the threats being made are for tactical, negotiating reasons and I remain confident that cooler heads will resolve these issues.

The threatened lawyer’s pursuit of KRG oil buyers pales into insignificance when set-off against a possible KRG lawyer’s pursuit of compensation for the victims of the Anfal campaign. Baghdad has a lot more to lose if this particular issue is taken down to the wire by Arbil and both Maliki and Shahristani know it.

The SP is disappointing, but the market turbulence has been long-awaited and is down to QE-relaxing and EM’s not re-aligning their economies/debt situations. As we remain a stock dominated by shorters and margin players, it’s plain to me why we are suffering at the moment. The lack of any sort of news by the company just adds to the uncertainty. The TV channel seems to have gone off the air as well.
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Sat Feb 01, 2014 1:20 am

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Iraq hires law firm to target buyers of "illegal" Kurdish oil

The Iraqi government has hired a law firm to target any buyer of what it considers illegally exported Kurdish crude oil, a Baghdad official said, toughening its tactics in a struggle to halt the northern region's drive for economic independence.

For the past year, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has trucked about 60,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to Turkish ports, avoiding the Baghdad-run Iraqi pipeline system as it tries to gain more control over oil revenues.

The central government threatened to sue over the shipments in a long-running dispute that talks between Baghdad and Arbil have so far failed to settle, but it took no legal action.

However, Baghdad is now preparing to act because it says the Kurds have raised the stakes by building a new pipeline linking their semi-autonomous landlocked region to Turkey. ()

Iraq's oil ministry instructed legal firm Vinson and Elkins about two months ago to pursue anyone who buys oil pumped down the pipeline to the Turkish city of Ceyhan, near the Mediterranean, a senior Iraqi oil official said.

"This is not a game. Anyone who buys this oil is doing something illegal," said the official, who asked not to be named. "We will target the companies because they are the ones who will monetise and pay for the Kurdish oil. How else can it get onto the market?"

Vinson and Elkins, which has represented the Iraqi government in the past, declined to comment.

Baghdad turned a blind eye to small trading companies that have bought barrels via regular tenders and trucked them across the border. Those tenders are still taking place.

But while the trucked amounts are relatively modest, Baghdad realised the Kurds were serious about independent exports when they sent test shipments down the pipeline in early December.

"You can't compare general trucking of 60,000 barrels or less to significant exports through a pipeline system," the senior Iraqi official said. "We have a bilateral, international agreement with Turkey - ratified by parliament - that does not allow the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to be used by a third party without the consent of the Iraqi government."

The central government insists it has the sole right to export Iraqi resources, including those from the northern Kurdish region which gained de facto autonomy after U.S.-led forces defeated Saddam Hussein in 1991.

The KRG says its right to exploit and export reserves under its soil is enshrined in Iraq's federal constitution, which was drawn up following the Gulf War of 2003, and has passed its own hydrocarbons legislation.

So far the talks between Baghdad and the Kurdish authorities in Arbil have borne little fruit, and once the storage tanks are full, Turkey must decide whether to turn off the taps or export the oil in defiance of Baghdad.

Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said on Thursday that around 220,000 barrels of Kurdish oil has been stored so far in tanks in Ceyhan. It remains unsold, and Iraq's threat of legal action appears intended to deter would-be buyers.

Yildiz told Reuters in an interview that Turkey would stand by a consensus reached in December between Ankara, Baghdad and Arbil to seek the central government's permission, but not its blessing, in exporting KRG oil.

OIL COMPANIES BAULK

The central government has raised the pressure on the Kurds to reach a deal, threatening to cut their share of the annual budget if they independently export oil.

On the legal front, lawyers said Baghdad would struggle to make a case stick and any litigation would be complicated by questions of jurisdiction, but the threat could deter companies reluctant to deal with the negative headlines.

"Instead of going after the KRG, they are going after people who will lift oil from them. They are trying to say to existing companies: 'your deal is in jeopardy'," said one lawyer who advises oil firms.

"It is a good strategy because no lifter wants to be in this situation. It is bad for the annual report as you have to disclose any litigation. You could get small lifters who will take the risk of incurring Baghdad's wrath, but if you are lifting 400,000 bpd you are by definition not small."

Executives from oil majors have said they won't touch KRG crude before the Kurds and Baghdad reach an agreement for fear of losing larger contracts with the central government.

"If Baghdad says 'no', I don't think anyone like us will go. No one big will go," an executive from one oil major said. "Even for larger trading companies ... who buy a lot of oil from Baghdad, the choice is easy. Why would they take the risk of losing that business?"

Even so, some regular buyers of Kurdish oil are likely to be interested if the Kurdistan Oil Marketing Organisation (KOMO) starts tenders for the Ceyhan oil.

"You don't need to be such a heavyweight to lift oil from Ceyhan. Someone will be interested," said an executive from an oil company active in Kurdistan. "They are pushing for a deal on two tracks but you can't store oil forever. I hope they reach a deal before storage capacity is reached."

ROOM FOR UNDERSTANDING

The storage is far from exhausted, potentially allowing time for talks to progress. Sources said Turkey has allocated three tanks with a capacity of 2.5 million barrels each for the Kurdish oil, just a fraction of which has so far been filled.

Many industry executives active in Iraq believe both sides are engaged in a game of brinkmanship ahead of Iraqi elections due this year and that a deal will eventually be clinched.

Iraq's top energy official Hussain al-Shahristani said this week Baghdad had proposed that the KRG pay the oil companies operating in the region out of its 17 percent share of the national budget, accept that national oil company SOMO would market the crude and deposit all revenue into the Development Fund of Iraq, based in New York.

The Kurds, however, are still insisting on marketing their own oil and say the proposal does not give them enough money to pay the operators. Shahristani said the KRG would respond soon.

"There has to be a reconciliation between Baghdad and Arbil. A lot of this is grandstanding ahead of this year's elections," said one oil industry source active in the north. "Behind the scenes there is a lot more cordiality, and dialogue is still going on. They both want the money."

Shahristani said the Kurds had promised not to start exporting while negotiations were still continuing.

One industry source in Arbil said he doubted the Kurds would go ahead with a tender for the Ceyhan oil soon, having promised one in January. "Negotiations with Baghdad continue and they will play it quiet for now," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/ ... VW20140130
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:32 am

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Biden Talks Oil Exports With Iraqi Kurdish Leader

Vice President Joe Biden says Iraq's self-ruled northern Kurdish region must work with Iraq's government to resolve conflicts over revenues for exported oil.

Biden called President Massoud Barzani (mah-SOOD' bar-ZAH'-nee) on Friday. It's at least the second time this month that the two have spoken.

The White House says Biden stressed the importance of close U.S. cooperation with the Kurdistan Regional Government and with Iraq's government. The two also discussed efforts to fight terrorism in Iraq.

Iraq's Shiite-led government has said it intends to create three new provinces in an apparent attempt to address Sunni grievances and counter the expansion of the Kurdish self-rule region. Iraq's government and the Kurdish region have bumped heads over the Kurdish region's decision to unilaterally start sending crude to Turkey.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStor ... r-22325016
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Sun Feb 02, 2014 3:01 pm

Kurdistan: Baghdad is no longer insisting on supervision Sumo on oil exports

Twilight News / confirmed the Kurdistan Alliance in the Iraqi parliament Sunday to make progress in the talks the federal government and the Kurdistan Region on the export of Kurdish oil.

Image

A member of the Kurdistan Alliance Qassim Mohammed in an interview with "Twilight News", that Baghdad is no longer insisting on the supervision of Iraqi oil export company "Sumo" state-owned Kurdistan exports.

He added that this position represents the beginning of a breakthrough crisis.

Earlier today Reuters quoted Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani announcing some progress in talks on oil dispute with the province of Kurdistan.

And entered into Kurdistan last year agreements with Turkey to export Kurdish oil through a new pipeline to Imitdd Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean to sell in global markets.

This development has raised the wrath of officials in Baghdad, who assert that the federal government is the only owner the right to manage Iraq's energy resources.

Conducted Baghdad and Erbil talks over the past weeks to reach an understanding on the export of Kurdish oil stalled for more than a year due to disagreements over payments companies producing oil in Kurdistan.

Said Mohammed "Nwcr that there is progress in the field of dialogues with the federal government and the government's concession for the supervision of the SOMO on the export of oil is a good step in the field of breakthrough oil crisis."

He pointed to Baghdad to provide a proposal for the formation of a national council to oversee the export of oil. He added that the two sides were continuing to communicate out of the current oil crisis.

The territory's government said recently that oil began flowing in the pipeline and expected to start exporting at the end of last month and then strengthen supplies in February and March.

But Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki threatened to reduce the share of the financial budget of the Kurdistan of Iraq if it goes ahead with plans to export without the approval of Baghdad.

Indeed, the financial budget is included a clause stipulating to deduct funds from the share of Kurdistan if not committed to deliver 400 thousand barrels per day of crude oil to the federal government in 2014.

And raised in this paragraph, the budget minister rejected the Kurds, who withdrew from the voting session on the budget in the Iraqi Council of Ministers.
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Oil majors still cautious over Kurdistan deals

PostAuthor: Anthea » Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:48 am

City AM

SOME oil companies are still reticent about tapping into Kurdistan’s plentiful energy resources, despite the regional government unveiling plans to start piping oil to Turkey earlier this month.

Kurdistan had been unable to exploit its oil reserves as Baghdad insisted that it retains control over Iraq’s energy resources – but the Kurdish province’s government has decided to go ahead without the Iraqi central government’s approval.

While firms such as France’s Total have entered the market regardless, City A.M. understands that FTSE 100-listed BP is not planning to expand into Kurdistan, in part to avoid triggering a dispute with Baghdad. BP operates the giant Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq and is currently assessing the Kirkuk oilfield in the north of the country.

“Our focus right now is on developing the Rumaila field and on completing the Kirkuk field studies,” said a BP spokesperson.

Oil majors would be right to be cautious. In 2011, Exxon Mobil signed a deal with Kurdistan and the Iraqi central government threatened to kick it out of an oil field it was developing in the south. Royal Dutch Shell declined to comment.

http://www.cityam.com/article/139140128 ... stan-deals
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Wed Feb 05, 2014 10:53 pm

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WesternZagros announces appointment of Vice President

WesternZagros Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:WZR) announces the promotion of Bill Jack to Vice President and General Manager Kurdistan effective January 1, 2014.

"Bill has been an integral part of the Company's executive team since he joined in 2013 and is increasingly responsible for all of our in-country activity," said Simon Hatfield, WesternZagros Chief Executive Officer. "I am delighted that he has accepted this position as this year could be transformational for the Company and Bill's focus and breadth of experience will be invaluable in executing our strategic business plan."

Bill Jack joined WesternZagros in February 2013, as General Manager Kurdistan. He is responsible for government liaison and in-country administration. Mr. Jack's extensive background encompasses more than 30 years of progressive leadership in international oil and gas roles, having spent the majority of his career with BP on projects in the United Kingdom, Middle East, Russia, Australia and North America. Mr. Jack holds a Bachelor of Science, Mechanical Engineering from University of Glasgow.

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/WesternZagros ... 7460c.aspx
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:14 am

ENERGY MARKETS REPORT INCLUDING: Iraq has made three proposals to Kurds for crude oil exports

February 05 2014, 10:11am

Heading into the North American open, WTI crude futures trade in positive territory following the lower than previous build in API crude oil inventories, with today's DoE report also expected to reveal a lower build than last week. Elsewhere, Brent crude futures trade with minor gains amid relatively light newsflow and currently reside above the USD 106/bbl level. Markets will still be keeping an eye on nat gas futures after trading with gains of over 9% in yesterday's session following the API Inventories release and the presence of weather concerns for the East Coast. Looking ahead for the session today sees the release of US ADP Employment Change, ISM Non-Manf. Composite and DoE Inventories.

Oil & Gas News

Iraq has made three proposals to Kurds for crude oil exports which include requiring the central government to pay dues owed to foreign companies working in the Kurdish region. Secondly, for the KRG to commit to allowing central government to sell 400,000bpd in the Kurdish region and finally for the central government to handle all production. (BBG)

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/col ... 15305.html
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu Feb 06, 2014 4:57 pm

Baghdad and Erbil increase oil production: Maliki

Baghdad: Iraqi Premier Nouri al- Maliki stated Baghdad and Erbil governments will increase their oil production to help improving Iraq’s situation in diverse fields. In order to improve the situation of political prisoners, martyrs’ families and Iraq different classes as well as the country’s development, Baghdad and Kurdistan Region have decided to increase their crude production, Maliki said in his weekly speech. The PM, however, did not point to disputes between the central government and Kurdistan regional government over oil. He further asked Parliament deputies to haste passing 2014 budget since the life of Iraqis will not change without the budget. Maliki stressed his government is determined in fighting and rooting up terrorism, adding that Baghdad will fight against any foreign or internal line or party that backs terrorism in Iraq. kurdpress.ir
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu Feb 06, 2014 5:00 pm

Gazprom is looking for the extraction of 10 million per year of oil in Kurdistan

Erbil: Russian Gazprom Company predicted to start producing oil from the Badra oil field in Wasit next spring, after the postponement of production processes due to security and logistical concerns. The website of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) quoted first vice Executive president in the company, Vadim Yakovlev as saying : "The company is targeting to reach production of 15 thousand barrels per day during the current year, and is expected to reach production to 170 thousand barrels per day by the year 2017. " Badra oil field is located in Wasit province with estimated reserves of about 3 billion barrels. He added: "It is likely that the company's production reach 10 million barrel per year the size of the Ckramaan and Halabja fields in the Kurdistan by 2022." ninanews.com
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu Feb 06, 2014 5:01 pm

Iraqi Parliament Speaker: Final decision on Kurdistan oil soon

Ankara: Iraqi Parliament Speaker Osama Nujaifi said Baghdad must make 'a final decision' on Iraq's Kurdistan oil exports to world markets through a new pipeline from Turkey's export hub of Ceyhan. The crude oil flow from the autonomous Kurdistan region via an independent pipeline to Turkey began in January, but Turkey cannot ship it to world markets without the approval of the central Iraqi government. Turkey hopes to reach a deal with the central government to start exporting oil. Nujafi told an AA correspondent on Wednesday that talks were still underway between Baghdad and Kurdistan Regional Government KRG. "The sides share similar opinions, but we have yet to reach an agreement... It is better if Iraq makes a decision regarding oil exports," Nujaifi said. Turkish officials expressed support for the agreement, he said. He stressed the need for steps to be taken quickly to reach an agreement and added that if the sides are unable to agree, it will lead to trouble in the Iraqi parliament and the government budget will not be approved. "There are 220,000 barrels of oil in Ceyhan, but it will take some more time to have enough oil and export it," he added...aa.com.tr | Ekurd.net
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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Thu Feb 06, 2014 5:09 pm

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Kurdistan, Iraq's central govt close to a deal over oil dispute: Genel

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Mehmet Sepil, the president of Anglo-Turkish firm Genel Energy

Iraqi Kurdistan and the central government in Baghdad are close to resolving a long-standing dispute over the sharing of oil revenues, said the president of Genel Energy, which operates in the region.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey signed in November a package of energy deals providing for exports of the semi-autonomous regions' rich hydrocarbon reserves abroad without having to get clearance from the central government.

An infuriated Baghdad, concerned about what it saw as a move towards the region's independence, threatened to sue the companies that lift Kurdish oil via the KRG pipeline.

While fiery statements between Erbil and Baghdad escalated, the talks between the two sides have also continued. Mehmet Sepil, the president of Anglo-Turkish firm Genel Energy who has knowledge of the talks, said he saw a deal approaching.

"We have never been this close to a deal," he told Reuters in an interview. "The issues that caused an impasse have been identified. There's been quite a bit of progress made."

The central government insists it has the sole right to export Iraqi resources, including those from the northern Kurdish region, which gained de facto autonomy after U.S.-led forces defeated Saddam Hussein in 1991.

The KRG says its right to exploit and export reserves under its soil is enshrined in Iraq's federal constitution, which was drawn up following the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The region has passed its own hydrocarbons legislation.

Failure to reach an agreement could deter international oil companies from lifting Kurdish crude. Genel, one of the first companies to export oil from Kurdistan, stands to benefit from a resolution of the dispute.

Hussain al-Shahristani, Iraq's deputy prime minister for energy often known by his feisty statements, said on Feb. 1 that 'some progress' had been made in talks and that a solution could be found soon.

One official from the central government said, however, that the Kurds were still insisting on handling exports through its own marketing company and that Baghdad strongly objected. He did not see that a breakthrough in the talks was imminent.

REVENUES TO U.S. BANK

Sepil said that according to the latest update he has on the talks, the hurdles have been narrowed down. "There are three issues now that need to be tackled."

He said those sticking points were whether the oil sales will be carried out by Baghdad's oil market company or Erbil's; the choice of bank account in which the revenues will be deposited; and the oil payments owed to companies operating in Kurdistan.

Baghdad has agreed to pay 17 percent of total revenues to the Kurds, Sepil said, based on the Iraqi constitution. Each side will then pay their own contractors, which would eliminate the discussion on the legality of the Kurdish contracts.

Previously, Baghdad paid contractors for its southern fields first from the common revenues and then allocated the Kurds' share. The region then had to pay its own contractors, which meant in the end that its share of the total only was around 10 percent.

The Kurds have set up the Kurdistan Oil Marketing Company (KOMO), which they insist should be authorized to carry out oil sales. They say they welcome officials from the central government's State Oil Marketing Corporation (SOMO)www.Ekurd.net to inspect the process.

Sepil said a possible structure that would include representatives of both companies is now being discussed and that a joint operation between the two might be possible.

"The trickier issue is the bank account. Baghdad wants the revenues to be deposited in the Development Fund of Iraq (DFI) instead of a Turkish state bank," Sepil said.

DFI was created in 2003 under a resolution from the United Nations Security Council to receives revenues from Iraqi oil and gas sales, which are used in part for the its reconstruction efforts.

Last but not least, the outstanding oil payments to companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan are a major issue that needs to be ironed out, Sepil said.

Companies operating in Kurdistan have stopped exporting through the federal pipeline after not being able to receive their full contracted entitlement from Baghdad. The Kurds did not have sufficient revenue out of their share to make up for the difference.

"The total amount owed to the companies from past exports is around 50 million barrels worth of oil money," Sepil said. "We don't want to keep exporting into a black hole. We are listed companies, we have shareholders. We can't just forget about this money," he said.

While the talks have continued between Erbil and Baghdad, the Kurds have started to ship oil independently via the new KRG pipeline into Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, which links with the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline at the border.

This oil has not yet been sold while the dispute with Baghdad has been unresolved, but companies expect to get their contracted share of those eventual revenues.

So far close to 500,000 barrels of crude oil have already been stored at Ceyhan, Sepil said, or one fifth of a total of 2.5 million barrels of storage that Turkey's state pipeline operator BOTAS has allocated for Kurdish oil.

The KRG had announced that it would open a tender to sell its oil at the end of January but that has not materialised.

"Surely that 500,000 barrels could be tendered. Much smaller amounts are being trucked, why not sell that parcel? But I think now is the time to wait for the diplomacy to bear fruit," Sepil said.

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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Fri Feb 07, 2014 10:06 pm

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In setting energy policy, Kurds flex their independence

When a referendum on independence for the Kurdish region was held alongside the 2005 parliamentary elections in Iraq, the result was more than conclusive – 98.8 per cent of Kurds voted in favour of an independent Kurdistan. Anthea: I enjoy reminding people of this :D

Now, with Erbil and Baghdad at loggerheads over the former’s independent oil exports to Turkey and the latter’s threat to cut the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) funding in response, the issue of independence has raised its head again.

As an Islamist insurgency rages in the south, the KRG’s control over the north has looked impressive by comparison, with little violence in the Kurdish region apart from last September’s attack on Erbil, in which a number of soldiers were killed and dozens injured.

But increasingly, it is energy policy where the Kurds are able to demonstrate their growing independence. As oil exploration and development in the south is hampered by violence and economic malaise, Kurdish Iraq has pressed ahead with its pipeline link to Turkey and is increasing exports every week.

It has also signed agreements with many of the world’s major international oil companies independently of Baghdad, much to the chagrin of the south.

“There is the sense that the Kurds feel that they should be getting a larger share of Iraqi’s overall wealth and should have more of it devolved for them to manage and spend, while Baghdad feels that the Kurds are not contributing their fair share to the economy and pushing for too much,” said Richard Mallinson, a geopolitical analyst and Iraq expert at Energy Aspects in London.

“Both sides have an eye to the long term and the fact that independent oil sales would be another plank in the autonomy platform that the Kurds have been bulling up.”

The KRG deputy finance minister, Rashid Tahir, was quoted by the local newspaper Rudaw earlier this year as saying that if a solution could not be reached with Baghdad over the budget then “we have no choice but to separate”.

“It would be like a father who encourages his son to separate from the family. If they want us to separate, we thank them and we take our own path,” he said.

Analysts say that Kurdish Iraq would struggle to support itself if a break with Iraq came tomorrow. An estimated 80 per cent of spending in the region goes to salaries, and the KRG could not switch exports on and overnight receive enough money to break all links with the south. “It wouldn’t be able to pay the bills,” said Shwan Zulul, head of Carduchi Consulting in London.

There are territorial issues too, Shwan says, with disputed regions such as the city of Kirkuk, with its sizeable Arab and Kurdish populations. These regions also contain the bulk of northern Iraq’s oil, a guaranteed source of conflict between Iraq and a future Kurdish state. Iraq, for its part, would lose the Kurdish border with Turkey.

Then there is the international element, said Mr Mallinson, with sizeable Kurdish populations in Iran, Turkey and Syria.

“Some advocates of an independent Kurdistan argue that the desire has been suppressed for decades, if not longer, because they are spread among several countries, so any change in one of those countries would have big ramifications for its neighbours,” he said.

He points out that while the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, reached a ceasefire with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party last March – ending a bloody campaign in the south-east of Turkey – there has been no conclusion on what the future holds for Turkish Kurds. They will be looking at what happens in Iraq.

Others have said that the pipeline with Turkey demonstrates a willingness on the part of Mr Erdogan to deal with a separate Kurdish entity in Iraq.

“The recurrent, traditional argument against Kurdish independence was that there would be a reluctance on the part of Turkey to go all the way and let the Kurds export oil from the KRG area in the event of independence. That problem now seems significantly diminished,” said Reidar Visser, a research fellow at the Norwegian Insitute of International Affairs.

On the other hand, he said that the increasing federalist ambitions of Syrian Kurds – who have all but carved out their own state in eastern Syria as the civil war rages – could force a rethink of Turkish policy towards the Kurdish region.

“They may see the danger of a domino effect that could ultimately impact eastern Turkey itself,” Mr Visser said.

In the end, it will be the international community that would need to get on board if the Kurdish region was to separate from Iraq. The recent involvement of the American vice president, Joe Biden, in the spat between Baghdad and Erbil suggest that the United States would prefer to see a compromise rather than a split, Mr Mallinson said.

“A big change in Iraq would not only have implications for Iraq’s security, it would also have impacts elsewhere in the region. The US spent a lot of blood and treasure to get Iraq to where it is today, and it doesn’t want that to fundamentally alter that or go backwards,” he said.

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Re: Kurdistan Oil & Gas Development

PostAuthor: Anthea » Fri Feb 07, 2014 10:10 pm

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Iraqi budget battle brews over Kurdish oil exports

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The tug of war between Baghdad and Erbil has become a traditional fixture in the Iraqi political calendar in the months before the debate on the country’s budget, with both sides claiming that the other is failing to fulfil its constitutional commitments.

This year is no different, with Baghdad upping the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) oil export quota to an unfeasible 400,000 barrels per day, up from 250,000 bpd last year. Baghdad has threatened to cut the Kurds out of the budget if they do not hit that target on which, it claims, the annual budget relies.

The KRG, meanwhile, claims that it is not receiving the 17 per cent of Iraqi revenues to which it is entitled under the constitution to, among other commitments, pay salaries of the peshmerga (armed forces).

Most recently, the Kurds have begun to export oil to Turkey through a new pipeline independently in direct defiance of Baghdad, which has angrily accused the KRG of stealing Iraqi oil in the international media.

“The spat is nothing new, but the difference this time is the amount of oil that can be exported by the KRG, which could turn the table on Baghdad in terms of economic dependence. Baghdad will have little or no leverage left if the KRG can sell oil independently,” said Shwan Zulal, the head of Carduchi Consulting in London.

The KRG ministry of natural resources exported two million barrels of crude through the pipeline in January, and it has a target of 10 million to 12 million barrels a month by the end of the year. Although for the time being Turkey has vowed not to sell Kurdish oil until it receives a green light from Baghdad, Mr Zulal estimated that within 18 months the KRG could be exporting enough to sustain itself, at least in the short term.

Speaking to the local newspaper Rudaw earlier this year, the KRG deputy finance minister, Rashid Tahir, intimated that the Kurdish region of Iraq had an eye on self-sufficiency as the exports through the Turkey pipeline increase. He said the KRG made 10.5 trillion Iraqi dinars (Dh33.1 million) through oil exports and internal revenues last year.

It is little surprise, then, that Baghdad has been piling on the pressure, with Haider Al Abaidi, the head of the Iraqi parliament’s treasury committee, saying last month that unless the Kurds upped their production to 400,000 bpd and pay export revenue to the national treasury this year, the budget will collapse.

He estimated that the Iraqi budget deficit would be as much as US$18 billion this year even if the Kurds do meet this target — because of a sharp increase in public sector wages, student allowances, child benefit and pensions — and warned that the Kurdish region risked losing its cut of state spending if it did not pay Baghdad what it demands.

“They are not contributing, so why should they get something out of it? At the moment we have a deficit of 21tn dinars. If you add 15tn or 16tn dinars to it [the amount expected to be lost if the KRG does not pay its oil export revenue], the budget will collapse,” he said.

But analysts are not convinced by such guilt-tripping on the part of the south. Richard Mallinson, a geopolitical analyst and Iraq expert at Energy Aspects in London, argued that the rhetoric over budget collapse is overblown, citing the fact that similar warnings were made last year with little drastic consequence for Iraq’s finances.

“[The 2013 budget] supposed 250,000 bpd of exports going into the federal budget over the entire year. Kurdistan hasn’t done that and the budget hasn’t collapsed because oil prices have been higher and because Baghdad hasn’t spent as much as it was anticipating,” Mr Mallinson said.

“So some of these statements are more about trying to apply pressure on the Kurds.”

Mr Zulal expects the final production targets to be lowered during negotiations over the budget, given that the current expectations are so unfeasible.

“[They are] setting the target high to negotiate down later. The KRG has no capacity at this moment to export 400,000 bpd. Even if they hit that level of production, the domestic market would be starved. It would not be practical,” he said.

In terms of a resolution, it will likely be politics that forces a compromise between the north and the south. Analysts point out that the parliamentary elections in Iraq in April have intensified the political dimension of the negotiations, with the prime minister, Nouri Al Maliki, needing to look tough on the Kurds to appease nationalists in the south as he vies for a third term in office.

“Baghdad is using it to play to the nationalists and ultranationalists in Iraq. He needs to show that he is not letting the Kurds get away with it,” Mr Zulal said.

Others said that the elections, along with being partly responsible for the spat, could also help to resolve it, with Mr Maliki coming to an agreement with the Kurds in return for their support for his leadership bid. Indeed, the Kurdish parties remain a powerful bloc in the perennially divided Iraqi parliament.

“There is then the question of the coalition building in the constitutional assembly and the fact that the Kurds are an important power bloc alongside the main Shia and Sunni parties — so certainly Mr Maliki and his government haven’t been able to dismiss them completely. They have always tried by and large to work with them,” Mr Mallinson said.

“I expect that somewhere around the election, either just before or just after, Baghdad will grudgingly agree to allow the KRG to manage its own oil exports, with some sort of revenue-sharing arrangement.”

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